New Avian Flu Plan Hatched by USDA, but Experts Are Wary

On February 26, Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins released a five-pronged strategy and investment of $1 billion to combat avian flu and reduce rising egg prices. The new measures focus largely on fixing on-farm biosecurity gaps as well as push for a new poultry vaccine. The proposed plan marks a pivot away from current methods of handling infected birds, which rely mostly on “stamping out” — where poultry farmers ‘depopulate’ or wipe out their entire flocks. Sentient spoke with a number of experts who were skeptical about moving away from the USDA’s longstanding depopulation strategy, especially given the virus’ high capability for mutation. These experts say they are encouraged to see more attention and investment paid to the ongoing outbreaks, at the same time that they note the plan’s lack of concrete details.

Meghan Davis, associate professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, says that it’s encouraging to see large-scale investment going towards research and biosecurity measures but would like more clarity on what the strategies actually are, if they are going to replace depopulation. “These stamping out policies have been in place for quite some time. There’s a reason it exists and one of them is animal welfare issues –– these birds get really sick… and [rarely] recover,” Davis tells Sentient. We really need to think thoroughly about ways to limit further amplification of an outbreak and monitor whether or not new strategies are working, she says.

The move comes at a chaotic time for avian flu response. Thanks to Elon Musk’s federal spending crackdown, several key avian flu workers were fired by USDA, and the Department is now struggling to rehire them.

Mass firings of researchers and communication freezes across various scientific disciplines has instilled little confidence in experts who fear the U.S. is already lagging in its avian flu response. In the past 30 days alone, and as of March 3, the virus has infected 107 flocks, affecting 12.7 million birds, according to the USDA. So far, 70 people have been infected and one person has died from avian flu in the U.S. Given the unpredictable nature of the virus and its spread into cats, pigs and cows, there is concern of a pandemic if human-to-human transmission occurs.

“Gold-standard” Biosecurity Measures

The bulk of the $1 billion investment goes towards reinforcing existing biosecurity measures — such as ramping up protocols to guard against disease spillover from wildlife — at no cost to farmers. These aspects of the plan may prove challenging given that the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, the agency who carries out on-farm inspections, has lost roughly 400 workers amidst Musk’s federal firings.

The boost in biosecurity measures focuses on risk from waterfowl and other wild birds that can shed virus through their droppings or direct contact with farm animals. Spread between wildlife and farm animals is a key aspect of why avian flu spread is so hard to control, along with research that shows spread by wind.

The Rollins plan is light on concrete details as to what exactly the new biosecurity strategies are but typical protocols would be vehicle wash stations and protective gear for workers, who are currently the most vulnerable population to avian flu spread.

When asked for more details about the new plan, a spokesperson for the USDA cited principles from a set of biosecurity protocols established in 2016 as part of the National Poultry Improvement Plan, and says measures will focus on biosecurity gaps –– “This includes both structural biosecurity (measures used in the construction and maintenance of coops, pens, poultry houses and other facilities) and operational biosecurity (practices, procedures and policies that farm owners and workers follow consistently).”

In her Wall Street Journal commentary, Rollins notes that of the 150 sites that followed recommended biosecurity protocols, only one was subsequently affected by avian flu. Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett says he is preparing a “smart perimeter” plan, along with Rollins, to avoid depopulation.

Smart perimeters is essentially a fancy term for monitoring risk in the area around the farm, in this case geared towards wild bird migration. Picture a farm as a bullseye and then draw a 10 kilometer radius around it –– that’s about the size of an avian flu risk perimeter.

“That’s a pretty crude way of assessing risk,” Maurice Pitesky, an associate professor and expert in poultry disease modeling at the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, tells Sentient. Plopping 10 kilometer circles everywhere there’s an outbreak does little to account for bird movements in the region.

What works better, according to Pitesky: accurately tracking bird movement and holistically assessing different factors –– such as wind or temperature –– that might drive birds into this radius. Pitesky has developed a technology that can track where waterfowl are relative to commercial poultry, which, he says, is highly scalable to help identify farms historically under the highest burden. For now, however, it doesn’t appear the USDA is incorporating this into their smart perimeter work, he says.

Even as, broadly speaking, strengthening biosecurity is key to combat spread, it alone might not be the saving grace everyone hopes. “I think there is a lot of wishful thinking that this is going to be a game changer and that the farmers won’t have to euthanize non sick birds … that could be a bad thing [because] if you are not aggressive with depopulating, you have the potential to create reservoirs of virus that can potentially cause further spread,” Pitesky tells Sentient.

Vaccination Instead of Depopulation?

The USDA has given conditional approval to a Zoetis vaccine H5N2 for chickens but has yet to give the go ahead for vaccinating commercial poultry flocks against avian flu. Some may be surprised to hear Rollins has committed to invest $100 million in research and development of such vaccines, given the anti-vax sentiments from Trump appointees like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Industry groups have chimed in their support, applauding the new USDA plan and expressing enthusiasm for vaccination. However, the reason the USDA has been hesitant to implement vaccination remains: many countries won’t accept vaccinated chickens. The U.S. is the second largest exporter of poultry and should a vaccine be rolled out, the federal government would have to negotiate agreements with its trading partners.

“Before making a determination, USDA will solicit feedback from governors, state Ag commissioners, veterinarians, farmers and the American public. In fact, USDA will immediately begin holding biweekly meetings to provide updates and hear your input,” a spokesperson for the USDA tells Sentient.

Rollins also suggested loosening “unnecessary regulatory burdens” on egg standards. One such law mentioned is California’s Proposition 12, which established minimum space requirements for egg-laying hens, and which Rollins says contributes to the state’s high egg prices. Prop 12 expanded the tightest confinement standards for some farm animals by mandating specific space requirements for products like pork and eggs sold in and to California, with a few exceptions. Nevada has just moved to allow suspension of its cage-free standards in an effort to increase egg supply, though many experts say the approach is largely flawed. Increasing more backyard chickens for eggs was also a suggestion –– however, these chickens are also at risk of interacting with infectious waterfowl, as 51 backyard flocks have gotten avian flu in the past 30 days.

Watching and Waiting

Both Pitesky and Davis would like to see a wider range of experts deployed in order to curb the spread long-term — including animal behavior experts to make farms less attractive to wild birds and environmental public health experts.

We already lag behind other countries who have “One Health” collaborative teams of experts to holistically assess outbreaks, says Davis. It’s unclear whether the USDA $1 billion accounts for this kind of avian flu analysis but it might be a tall ask, given the current administration’s erasure of non-essential research costs.

“Patchwork investment” won’t make up for the huge federal workforce losses of key researchers in this area and siloing scientific agencies with the communications ban, Davis says. “I have major concerns moving forward that we will not have good eyes on this virus and that heaven forbid, start to develop a human to human transmission chain, and that’s a huge step down that path towards a pandemic. I would hate to look back in five or 10 years at this moment and think, wow, what we could have done right now could have prevented so much.”